URANIUM - JOHN QUAKES: my UPDATED take on the uranium BULL MARKET CASE as it stands today!
READ ENTIRE JOHN QUAKES POST HERE!
This weekend I was asked by a Wall Street #investing guru, who has a large global following of institutional investors & fund managers, to provide my updated take on the #Uranium bull market case as it stands today.
ICYMBI, here's my submission:
The World #Nuclear Association's annual symposium has just wrapped up in London. The event was sold out for the first time, making it the largest Nuclear and Uranium industry gathering in the WNA's history.
Meetings and presentations were focused on how to best harness the rapidly growing global support for Nuclear #energy in order for the Nuclear industry and supply chains to fulfill the COP28 pledge to triple Nuclear capacity by 2050.
Global decarbonization goals coupled with greater emphasis on achieving 24/7 #CarbonFree#EnergySecurity are driving a resurgence not seen since the 1970's.
Demand Signals China just approved construction of another 11 reactors for a total of 46 new builds approved in the past 5 years. Most of the 46 reactors in China's construction pipeline(55GW) are identical copies that can be built in under 5 years thanks to the forethought of an expanded supply chain and workforce capable of building multiple identical reactors simultaneously.
By 2030 China will have the world's largest nuclear fleet of 102 reactors producing over 113GW of zero-emissions electricity, consuming more than 56 Million lbs of Uranium per year, a near doubling of their current consumption in just 6 years. China told the WNA symposium that they plan to accelerate their build-out by approving up to 12 more reactors in each of the next 4 to 5 years.
Their ultimate target is 150 operating reactors, tripling their uranium demand to 90 Million lbs per year. China is also pressing ahead with plans to mass produce its 210MW HTR-PM "pebble bed" Small Modular Reactor that was recently tested to successfully confirm that it's "meltdown proof".
It's designed as a drop-in replacement for coal-fired burners in China's 1,100 power plants that could be converted from coal to uranium fuel. HTR-PM SMR's are also being planned to replace coal-fired district heating plants that produce hot water that's distributed to homes and businesses in northern cities.
Nuclear fuel consultants UxC just released the 5th edition of their Global Nuclear Fuel Inventories report. It revealed that China is front-running Western fuel buyers, adding 85 Million lbs of inventory in the past 2 years as they look to secure Uranium fuel in advance of approving new reactor builds.
Over the same 2 year period, US utilities saw a net increase of only 2 Million lbs, the EU less than 2 Million. Kazatomprom also just reported that 47.3% of Kazakhstan's Uranium sales in the first half of this year were purchases by China. Western fuel buyers have been asleep at the wheel while China has been buying up as much U3O8 as possible.
Russia just released a draft 2042 Energy Plan which calls for the construction of another 34 Nuclear reactors that will more than double Russia's Uranium requirements over the next 18 years, adding 18 Million lbs per year of new demand. India's Minister of State has confirmed plans to triple India's Nuclear capacity from 8,180MW to 22,480MW in just 7 years by 2031-2032, aiming for 100,000MW by 2047.
They now have 21 new reactors of 15,300MW in their construction pipeline. That's a 3-fold increase in Uranium requirements by the start of the next decade, a 12-fold rise by 2047.
In addition, India launched a plan in its 2024/2025 Budget to deploy dozens of 220MW Bharat Small Modular Reactors under a new public/private partnership program. One of the world's largest steelmakers, Tata Steel, wants to make green steel using as many as 200 carbon-free Bharat SMR's that will produce hydrogen to replace coking coal.
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