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If you need further proof that the nation’s formerly sizzling job market has gone cold, look to what had been perhaps the hottest part of the post-pandemic hiring frenzy: pay for newly hired workers.
After adjusting for inflation, average wages for new hires fell 1.5% over the 12 months ending in July – from $23.85 an hour to $23.51– the largest such decline in a decade, according to an analysis of Labor Department figures by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
By contrast, inflation-adjusted earnings for typical workers staying in their jobs rose 2.3% during the same period, the Upjohn Institute study shows.
When the economy is accelerating, pay increases for new hires tend to outstrip those of existing employees as companies rapidly add positions and compete for a limited pool of job candidates, says Brad Hershbein, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute. As job openings multiply, workers switch positions more frequently, further pressuring firms to fill openings and ratchet up wages.
“When the economy slows,” as it’s doing now, “that flips,” Hershbein said. Businesses still provide solid raises to existing staffers so they don’t lose them but there’s far less urgency to pay up to attract new workers, he said.
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