Fed officials seem like they have ‘no idea’ what is going on with U.S. inflation, strategist says
(CNBC)
KEY POINTS
Federal Reserve officials appear to have “no idea” what is happening when it comes to the inflation picture in the U.S., GAM’s Julian Howard told CNBC.
Policymakers have in recent days and weeks been suggesting that inflation remains too high and has fallen by less than previously expected, urging patience when it comes to interest rate cuts.
“Inflation is notoriously difficult to predict and I don’t think they have any real idea what’s happening,” Howard said.
Federal Reserve officials appear to have “no idea” what is happening when it comes to the inflation picture in the U.S., according to Julian Howard, lead investment director of multi-asset solutions at GAM.
His comments come as policymakers have in recent weeks been urging patience over interest rate cuts, arguing that inflation has fallen by less than previously expected and is still too sticky for the Fed to press ahead with easing monetary policy.
“I think the message that’s coming through is that they have no idea what’s going on,” Howard said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
The Fed declined to comment.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday said that he needed to see further data evidence that inflation was softening before supporting rate cuts.
“In the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy,” he said at an event at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Waller’s comments were echoed by other Fed officials on Tuesday, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins.
“I think the data has been very mixed ... and it’s going to take longer than I had previously thought,” she said at a conference hosted by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. “We’re in a period when patience really matters.”
‘A credibility problem’
But Fed officials have not come out with a clear message about their expectations or to address why inflation remains elevated, GAM’s Howard said.
“Inflation is notoriously difficult to predict and I don’t think they have any real idea what’s happening,” he noted.
“To be honest, there’s a credibility problem,” Howard said.
As the great James Grant once said (paraphrasing) “The price of gold is the reciprocal of the Fed’s reputation”. That is certainly playing out, and will continue. The Energy Transition and ReRouting Global Supply Chains are both STRUCTURALLY INFLATIONARY. Yet, the Fed remains anchored to their academic vacuum of 2%. This is way beyond quixotic…
Ultimately, when reality deviates from the Fed's models, their default response is reality is wrong and will adjust to their model results. It is an inherent problem as all the PhD's made their reputation on their models so believe they must be accurate.
He is completely correct, they haven't a clue as to what drives inflation. (if we could only point them toward the 7% budget deficits and excessive spending as a place to start it would be helpful)