JORDAN ROY-BYRNE: The 1960s-1970s period is a far better comparison for Gold & Silver than the 2000s. Here's why....
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1) Secular Bear Market in Bonds
This is the major difference that few recognize.
From 1920 through 2020, a 100-year period, the only time you lost money in Bonds was from 1965 to 1982.
The yellow in the chart highlights secular bear markets.
The 80-month moving average of the real total return in bonds is an excellent secular trend indicator.
While for stocks, the 40-month moving average is the secular trend indicator.
When Bonds break, capital moves into Gold and hard assets but also stocks.
Eventually the secular bond bear will push stocks into a secular bear market. That means the two major asset classes will be in a secular bear.
2) New All-Time High in Gold, Early in Bull
Gold spent the majority of the 2001 to 2011 period below all-time highs.
It wasn't until the end of 2007 when it first made its new all-time high. That only lasted for ~8 months.
After the GFC, Gold would spend its last 2 years at new all-time highs.
Contrast that with the 1970s and 2020s.
Gold's bull market began in the early 1970s with the Greatest Breakout of All-Time. It ran for another 8 years.
Gold's new secular bull market began at the end of 2023 with the move to breaking out of its 13-year-long cup and handle pattern.
This is when Gold's new secular bull market began in real terms. Not in 2016 or 2018. Numerous other data points support this view.
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