NICK GERLI: The job market is really starting to slow!
Job market is starting to really slow.
BLS jobs growth slipped to 1.1% YoY in May, a sharp deceleration from prior years.
While the job growth figure is still positive, it is now below the long-term trend. During typical economic expansions/recoveries, job growth is closer to 2-3%.
Suggesting that the labor market is weakening. Something the Fed should start paying attention to.
1) The correct way to describe the job market right now is "relatively stable, but unimpressive".
Economic bulls like to say this means the economy is fine. Economic bears like to say it points to an incrementally weakening picture.
What concerns me, though, is the jobs data also coming from Indeed...
2) The Indeed job postings index, a measure which tracks how many openings employers have on Indeed, has plummeted by about 34% from its post-pandemic peak in 2022.
At this point, the U.S. is only 6% above the pre-pandemic job postings level.
Any further slowing and it should start getting the Fed's attention.
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